Here's an interesting article on due dates, along with links to information about the various methods used to calculate (estimate) due dates. It's worth a read, as the writer strives to paint a clear (or, at the least, detailed) picture of this muddy art/science.
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=233200
One of the resources linked from the above page contains the following chart of percentages based on LMP-calculated gestation/due dates:
Before 37 weeks: 4%
37 weeks: 5%
38-39 weeks: 10%
39-40 weeks: 20%
40-41 weeks: 35%
41-42 weeks: 20%
Over 42 weeks: 10%
( graph taken from:
http://www.transitiontoparenthood.com/ttp/birthed/duedatespaper.htm )
-k
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